The next pope?

Today the cardinals of the Roman Catholic church begin their conclave to elect a new pope.  Though I have no expertise in the workings of the church, I’m willing to guess whom they will choose.  I think that they will look outside Italy and elect as pope someone whom they believe can strengthen the church in his home country.  They will stick with Europe, however, and not look too far afield.  They will look for a man who is already old, not wanting another 25+ year pontificate, and will choose someone fairly conservative on doctrine.

The two most prominent cardinals who fit this profile are Jean-Marie Lustiger, age 78, Archbishop Emeritus of Paris and a cardinal since 1983, and Joseph Ratzinger, also age 78, most recently in the Curia.  He is third in seniority in the College of Cardinals, having been appointed in 1977.  (Cardinal Ratzinger is one of only three Cardinal Electors who was not appointed by John Paul II.)  I predict that one of them will be elected.

A complete list of Cardinal Electors, and a lot of other information, is at a website called CatholicHierarchy.org.  I found it especially interesting to see which future popes and cardinals had consecrated, or had been consecrated by, other future popes and cardinals.