Here are my election-night predictions (not endorsements) for what we’ll see as the votes are counted. Some of these are different from the ones I sent to Kari Chisholm’s contest (now closed) at MandateMedia.
Governor: Ted Kulongoski wins re-election but with less than 50% of the vote.
Supreme Court: Virginia Linder defeats Jack Roberts, 58-42.
U.S. House: All five representatives are re-elected. Of the incumbents, Earl Blumenauer receives the highest percentage and David Wu receives the lowest.
Ballot measures: Measures 39 (anti-condemnation), 41 (income tax deduction), 42 (credit scores for insurance), and 44 (low-income drug program) pass. The others fail.
Multnomah County Commission: Jeff Cogen defeats Lew Frederick, 54-46.
Clackamas County Commission: Division of votes among the challengers lets Larry Sowa win re-election in a squeaker.
Multnomah County Court: Judith Matarazzo wins in the crowded field to succeed the late Judge Freeman. Leslie Roberts wins unopposed for the seat formerly held by Youlee You, but 28% of the voters write in Charles Henderson and a lot of people abstain.
Karen Minnis’s race goes down to the wire and she wins, 51-49.
Your predictions?
Comments
One response
Isaac,
Here’s what I wrote over on another blog w/ election predictions:
“Stepping aside from my campaign manager role for the moment, I’ll say I’m guessing you’re mostly right. I think 40 will be very close (altough I don’t think it should be) simply because the campaign has played up the Portland against the rest of Oregon angle. I think enough voters on the west side of the state are keyed into the issues with 41 that it has a shot of failing. I think 43 may actually pass – on issues with a moral element (for lack of a better term), like gay marriage and that sort of thing, our state ends up being surprisingly right-leaning. Term limits will probably pass (again). On the local tax increases, libaries and schools will win, and the environment will lose.
“I think Earl will win (actually, that’s a pretty easy pick). For the Supreme Court, it’ll be a tight race. Linder is more qualified, in my view, but I think Roberts will actually draw more votes.
“Judges:
“Position 28 – Matarazzo. She’s got all of the major endorsements, and I’ve noticed on our website that most people, in these races, follow those.
“Position 31 – Albrecht, same reason. I think either candidate would be a fine pick, though.
“Position 37 – Roberts. Although I expect that we’ll have a surprisingly high percentage (I’m guessing in the mid to upper 30’s), not being on the ballot is just too hard to overcome. Plus, a lot of people have complimented us on how we’re running our campaign, but I’ve heard some others who are voting against Steve Duin more than they’re voting for Roberts. Silly, but true. But this race truly will be interesting to people that are in touch with the issues.
“Governor – this is really going to be close. The question is simply how engaged the non-valley counties are. If the Bush-Kerrey race is any indicator, Kulongoski should take it. But, at the same time, no one really gave Bush a chance in Oregon. I think Republican voters, however, may smell blood in the water and may turn out to try to push this one over the edge. I’m calling this one a pick ’em, although if you held a gun to my head, I’d guess that Kulongoski will win, maybe with under 50% of the vote (thanks to Mary Starrett).”
On other races he didn’t discuss:
I haven’t followed the county commission race that closely. Seems like Frederick has better word of mouth, though, so I’m leaning towards predicting he’ll win.
On Minnis: whatever Portlanders think of her, she’s in with Gresham and fits with their old-school, more right-leaning culture. I think it’ll be closer to 55-45 or 60-40.
Anxiously awaiting the results, personally…
Chris Piekarski
hendersonforjudge@gmail.com