A different sort of poll: who do you think will win?

The Knower of All Things passed along to me an interesting experiment he ran at his workplace. He asked his co-workers to predict the outcome of the Presidential election, in electoral votes. Almost half the entrants believed that the election would be close, with the winner having fewer than 290 electoral votes (270 are needed to win). Nearly a third thought that 10 or fewer electoral votes would separate Bush and Kerry. One person predicted a Kerry landslide (350+ electoral votes). No one predicted a Bush landslide. Overall almost exactly half predicted that Kerry would win, and about half predicted that Bush would win. After reviewing the KoAT’s numbers, I’m not so confident of my own prediction (Bush winning the popular vote, and Kerry winning the electoral vote), but I’m still going with Senator Kerry winning the election.